Where’s The Trump Base?

              Want to know how Joe and Kammie are really doing in the 2020 race?  Don’t spend all you time poll-watching in the so-called ‘battleground’ states. Spend a few minutes looking at the polls in the really red states.

              I’m talking about states like South Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Tennessee, places like that. These are states where the GOP could literally run a piece of dog shit for President and the dog shit would still win.

              Here’s a graph which compares the percentage of votes that Trump received in 2016 versus what he would get if the 2020 election were held today:

              The reason that none of these states are considered ‘battleground’ or ‘swing’ states is because if a Democratic Presidential candidate ever won in any of them, it was before I was born. And this chart only contains states for which there have been enough polls to make a credible comparison between four year ago and today.

              So, for example, this chart doesn’t contain such red-only states like West Virginia (the dumbest of the dumb states) because the last poll held in West Virginia was on January 8th. In that survey, Trump had a 66-31 lead over Joe, a gap that was slightly less than the 68-24 gap that he enjoyed against Hillary in 2016.  Or take a state like Nebraska, where Trump got 58.5% of the vote in 2016 and where the only 2020 poll taken in August shows him ahead of Joe, 48-46. But again, one poll doth not a prediction make.

              So let’s go back to those 8 reliable Republican states where we have enough poll data to make a valid comparison between he campaign of 2016 and the 2020 campaign. Frankly, if I were trying to figure out a re-election strategy for #45, I would be as much or even more concerned about the poll results from these states than what we are seeing in the so-called ‘battleground’ states.

              First and most important is the fact that the overall gap in the 12 battleground states is less than 3 points – Joe’s average is 48.06%, Trump’s at 45.17%. If Trump were to take two-thirds of the dog-shit votes in all those states, he would win again.  On the other hand, in the 8 really red states, Trump’s average is 52.36%, compared to the 57.78% of the votes that were cast in 2016. 

I’m not saying that Joe can flip any of those states, his average polling number is 41.48%. But the fact that Trump’s support in his strongest states has eroded over the past four years, tells me that all the talk about the so-called ‘loyalty’ of his base is just wishful talk. Back in 2016, Hillary rolled up a whole, big 37% average in those 8 deep-red states. In other words, Joe is now registering 12% more support and Trump is pulling 10% less in the dumbest states.

And by the way, before you start thinking that I’m over-stating the problem for Trump, think about this. In 2016, the dog-shit vote was 5.22%; right now it’s basically the same – 6.15%. So this year there’s no more wiggle room than there was in 2016. This year Trump’s numbers in his strongest states will come in below where they were when he ran for the first time.

If Trump’s numbers were holding steady this time around, then the Biden threat wouldn’t mean much at all. But his numbers aren’t holding, not just in the battleground states, but in all states. And it’s one thing to convince voters who haven’t made up their minds to pull your lever or check your box. It’s quite another to make people who no longer support you to come back to the fold.

You don’t make that argument by telling everyone how great you are because they’ve already decided that you’re not so great. You have to make them understand that the candidate they are now supporting represents all kinds of dangers which perhaps they don’t understand.

With 7 weeks to go in this campaign, does Trump have any more desperate, anti-Biden assaults up his sleeve? Don’t worry, he’ll try something.

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