Yesterday I posted a comment about how the liberal media is trying to promote the idea of a Trump-led subverted election process based on Barton Gellman’s article in The Atlantic Monthly magazine. Today I received my weekly copy of The New Yorker magazine which contains another article about what will happen if Trump loses the election but then tries to stick around by challenging the results.
In this latter piece by Jeffry Toobin, we are told that Trump will make such a big deal out of his claim of a ‘rigged’ election that it will make the 2000 contest between Bush and Gore look like a “mere skirmish.” Toobin then goes on to say that Trump’s provocative language might very well mean that “anything short of a landslide for either Biden or Trump could lead to chaos.” In other words, the election as an apocalyptic electoral event.
As we head towards Armageddon, let’s take a look at the surveys. As of today, Joe leads Trump in the national surveys by 7 percent – 50% to 43%. Joe has been ahead by 7 to 9% since – ready? – mid-June. During those 100 days, he has dipped below 50%, all the way down to 49.9%, exactly twice. Nobody can point to a single, national campaign which has been so stable over such a long period of time.
Now let’s look at those critical swing states. The media keeps telling us that there are somewhere between 9 and 12 states that could go either way. In fact, no matter how you slice it or dice it, Joe needs to win exactly 4 of those battleground states – Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and PA.
In Michigan, Joe’s up 49.7% to 42.8%, a lead of 7 points. The Wisconsin numbers are 50.3% Joe, 43.8% Trump. Pennsylvania’s the close one – 49.6% for Biden, 44.9% for Trump. In New Hampshire it’s 49.7% Biden, 43% Trump spread. In all 4 states, Joe’s lead has been consistent since at least the beginning of July.
Now let’s pretend that the election takes place next Tuesday instead of on November 3rd. Both the national and the statewide polls set the votes going to the Libertarian and Green candidates at 3%, which means that another 4% would be split between Biden and Trump.
Worst case scenario: Trump gets 60% of the final dog shit vote. So he would wind up with a national total of 45.5% of all votes, a number that would basically be the same in the 4 battleground states. In other words, the gap between the two candidates both in the overall count as well as in the battleground states would be somewhere around 6%.
I keep hearing from all the liberal experts like Gellman, Toobin, et. al., that because the election is so close and because the results won’t give our side a decisive win, that we can expect Trump to do all kinds of illegal things to prevent an orderly transition of power from taking place. He’ll gum up the USPS, his rifle-toting militia will challenge voters at the polls, he’ll file all kinds of crazy lawsuits, he’ll bring the political process to its knees.
Last night, Toobin was interviewed by Wolf Blitzer on CNN at 6 P.M. At 6:30, the story about how Trump was going to refuse to leave office peacefully and quietly then became the lead story on the NBC national news. So Trump completely dominated the news cycle yesterday by taking the click-bait nonsense promoted by the liberal media and pretending that he intends to save America from another political ‘scam.’
There’s only one little problem. In fact, if it were to turn out that the actual election ended with Joe getting 6% more votes than Trump, the 2020 results wouldn’t be close at all. Of the 18 Presidential elections that have been held since 1948, know how many gave the winner an edge of 6% or more of the popular vote?
Try four: 1956, 1964, 1972 and 1984.
If the November 3rd results wind up at or near how 14 of the past 18 Presidential elections have turned out, it will be a landslide for the blue team. The idea that Trump could convince anyone that an electoral results of such proportions was ‘rigged,’ is a joke.