Last night I told my sister that the way things looked right now, Joe was on his way to winning 350 electoral votes (EV) or more.
She said, “That’s impossible.”
I answered, “It’s not only possible, it could really happen and tomorrow I’ll explain how and why. So here’s my explanation.
Joe started the campaign with 19 Commie/Antifa/sanctuary states in his pocket which together represent 222 votes. This group includes big-ticket states like California, New York, Illinois, Virginia, and New Jersey, five states which alone hold 131 EV’s. Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Washington add another 43 EV’s, Add Colorado, Connecticut and Oregon and you have 23 more. The rest are the little guys like New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine, Hawaii, Delaware, and DC, okay?
As of this morning, the average gap between Joe and what’s-his-name is 25 percent; i.e., overall Joe’s got 60% of the voters who say they are likely to vote, what’s-his-name has 35%. A few states, like Virginia and New Mexico only show Joe leading by 10-12%, but those states are the exception, not the rule.
Then we have what are referred to as the ‘battleground’ states, which are states that, generally speaking, go blue, but in 2016 went red. There are another 9 such states, together representing 125 EV’s. Florida’s the big one with 29 EV’s, followed by Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10), what we’ll call the rust-belt states. New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa complete the battleground group.
To get to 350 EV’s, Joe has to capture all 9 battleground states, an outcome which appeared not only doubtful but entirely fanciful two weeks ago. In 4 of those states (MI, NM, WI, PA) Joe has hit the magic number of 50%. The average gap for all 9 states is slightly higher than 5% – 49.56% to 44.51%. And the Sedaris dog-shit number in all 9 states has slipped down under 6%.
Yesterday, the tattered remnants of Trump’s shock-jock noise machine went on a tear about the latest ‘fake news’ national polls, which show Joe moving ahead by as much as 16%. These numbers have to be faked because, after all, Trump is still ahead in 23 states.
My father, who was trained as an accountant, used to say, “Figures don’t lie, but liars sure can figure.” And what’s-his-name’s campaign narrative in this regard proves my father to have been absolutely correct.
The total population in the 23 states that still have what’s-his-name ahead is currently 111 million; in the 19 states going for Joe, the population amounts to 136 million. Add to that latter figure the total population in the battleground states (another 80 million) and right now the states that are showing Joe in front, constitute 68% of the country’s population as a whole.
Assuming that the national polls try to build a response based on a ‘representative’ sample of voters, how could the national polls show anything other than a double-digit lead for Joe, given his campaign’s current performance in both the blue and battleground states?
Of course, there’s always a chance that lots of voters for what’s-his-name are following some secret plan to hide their true intentions for how they intend to vote. That’s all well and good, except the polling outfit making this claim – Rasmussen – admits that even when they adjust their numbers to take the ‘silent vote’ into account, what’s-his-name continues to lag behind.
Last night I was watching the NBC National News at 6:30 on the network’s affiliate station, WWLP. Midway through the broadcast was a 30-second campaign ad for Trump. Massachusetts is the only state of all 50 states that sends a completely Democratic delegation to DC. As of this morning, Joe leads what’s-his-name by 65% to 29%. Even in the two biggest Commie states, California and New York, what’s-his-name is above 30%.
Buying TV time in Massachusetts? No wonder Trump’s campaign is broke. No wonder that Joe could just wind up blowing Trump out.
And just remember that every vote counts, if only to prevent what’s-his-name from challenging the results.