Notwithstanding the fact that Trump’s poll numbers are moving downward to the trash heap, I continue to be depressingly surprised at how he continues to define and control the public narrative in the 2020 Presidential campaign.
Give Trump one week and all this nonsense about how we will ‘beat’ the virus by fighting it together will disappear. And the messaging next week will probably go back to how and why the election results should be rejected because they will represent just another liberal ‘fraud.’
And the moment that Trump, for the umpteenth time, refuses to speculate on whether he will accept the electoral results, the mainstream media will respond by writing and saying that Trump’s a threat to democracy, that he’s trying to imitate Putin and install an autocratic regime, that we are heading for a governmental crisis the likes of which has never been seen before. We’ll get this nonsense from Bob Woodward and everyone else.
It’s crap. And the reason it’s crap is because we know exactly what Trump would have to do to challenge the November results, and such a challenge presupposes that Trump has either the organizational or financial wherewithal to mount such a legal assault..
It really doesn’t matter whether the Supreme Court adds another conservative justice who could tilt an electoral decision towards Trump. The Supreme Court won’t even hear a challenge to the outcome if it isn’t first run through a state court. And in order for any court to hear such a case, the plaintiff, in this case Trump, would have to first show that the so-called ‘fraud’ was such so as to affect the outcome of the race.
Every time someone starts kvetching about how the GOP ‘stole’ the 2000 election by finding a friendly judge in a Florida court, they neglect to mention that in the entire national election, Bush and Gore split 101 million votes by a difference of one-half of one percent, and Bush wound up with 271 versus 267 electoral votes.
They also neglect to mention that the two candidates split 5.8 million votes in Florida by a difference of 537 votes. In other words, a national election came down to the results of one state in which the winner ended up getting .00009 percent of the statewide vote. Now who wouldn’t contest an election result like that?
So a candidate can’t just decide to challenge the outcome of an election. In order to mount a challenge, here’s what, according to a Republican election lawyer, you have to do: “You have to know how many votes either from fraud or by mistake. And it has to be enough votes to cover the margin between the candidates. And so, if you think that you have to go out and actually get this evidence, you have to find voters, you have to election records, and you have to quantify this, and you have to do it in a time period of about a month.”
You think that Trump has the organizational apparatus to conduct such a strategy in one state? He can’t even put together a coherent message about his illness that doesn’t contain multiple mistakes, take-backs and outright lies. You can lie to CNN all you want. It’s not quite that easy to lie to a judge.
But the more important reason why the refusal of Trump to accept the election results is just so much cockarei (translation: bullshit) is because the way things are going, this election isn’t even close. As of this morning, Joe isn’t ahead in the national polls by one-half of one percent. He’s ahead by almost 9 percent, the widest gap since mid-July.
Things are a little tighter in the 4 states (MI, PA, MN, WI) that Joe needs to sew things up. He’s only up by 7% or more in each of those states, which is a lot more than the tiny fraction that Bush ended up ahead of Gore in the 2000 count from the Sunshine State.
Do yourself and me a favor. Stop worrying about a totally-contrived political narrative and send Joe some dough. Or do it tomorrow night while Kammie is wiping the floor with Mike Pence.
A High 5 to Drew Kadel for suggesting this column.