Did Trump Really Win The Small-Town Vote?

Now that the Michigan GOP delegation has returned home after telling Trump to stick his voting ‘fraud’ nonsense up his rear end where it belongs, just about the last legal challenge cooked up by the Trump team (Roger Stone, Steve Bannon, et. al.,) is another silly pleading before a Pennsylvania federal court that has already witnessed what is becoming an expected Giuliani melt-down in front of the press.

Want to get a real, no-holds-barred portrait of how Giuliani has become such a stooge? Read this op-ed memoir by his daughter Caroline Rose which somehow escaped my attention when it appeared last month in Vanity Fair. It turns out that the way Rudy reacts whenever someone asks him a question he doesn’t like, is exactly the way he used to respond to his daughter when she questioned anything he said.

Having lived through the childhood of my three kids and actually survived the ordeal, let me tell you this. The one thing you better learn as a parent is to assume that every word which comes out of your mouth will be challenged by your kids. You don’t figure that one out, you better forget parenting in any real sense. Obviously, Rudy hasn’t figure it out either as a parent or as a person who leads a very public life.

It turns out that when you compare county election results in Pennsylvania between 2016 and this year, you finally understand what the whole ‘election fraud’ narrative is all about. Back in 2016, Trump flipped Pennsylvania by less than 45,000 votes out of almost the 6 million votes that he split with Hillary. Like in Michigan, the Clinton campaign was managed so miserably that Jill Stein got more than 45,000 votes.

Of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, Hillary got a majority in 7 counties, Trump got all the rest. Where did Hillary score? In the counties representing Philly and Pittsburgh, as well as some of the smaller, industrial towns like Scranton and Allentown where the unions still have some say.

In Philadelphia and the surrounding burbs, Hillary piled up almost half her total, statewide vote. In some of the smaller rural counties, on the other hand, her numbers were so slight that it’s almost like she wasn’t on the ballot at all. She got less votes in Cameron County, which is up in the Allegheny State Forest, than she got in the little town where I live which is adjacent to Amherst, MA.

Trump, on the other hand, piled up more than 70% of the votes cast in 22 counties. Getting 7 out of every 10 votes in any jurisdiction is a remarkable example of a candidate’s appeal. Together, these 22 counties didn’t give Trump even half the votes that Hillary got from the city of Philadelphia alone, but again the comparison explains how and why Trump talks the way he does.

Now let’s turn the page and look at this year’s returns. For all the talk about how the Trump campaign pulled out more GOP voters than anyone had ever previously seen, what is remarkable about the Pennsylvania results was not only how many new votes Joe found in the usual ‘Democrat’ strongholds, but how his campaign made inroads into places where the GOP has always controlled the votes.

This time, Trump piled up more than 70% of the vote in 21 counties and his total popular vote increased by 13.6% over 2016. Impressive, right? Now dig this: Joe carried the 7 counties that Hillary carried and flipped 4 more counties as well. His popular vote increased by 18% over the statewide Hillary vote. More important, there were also 9 other small counties where Trump’s percentage of the 2020 total vote was less, and Joe’s percentage of the total vote in each county was greater than what Hillary received in 2016.

Let’s recall that Obama made his biggest verbal gaffe of the 2008 campaign when he talked about how residents of small, rural towns were ‘clinging’ to their religion and their guns. He happened to be talking about towns in places like Carlisle County, where Trump got almost 60% of the 2016 vote, Hillary got 38%. This year Trump got 54%, Joe got 44%. A 22-point gap between red and blue numbers has been reduced to 10 points.

No wonder the judge in Williamsport threw out Trump’s last challenge to the Pennsylvania vote last night.

What Will Happen If Trump Loses? Nothing.

              Yesterday I posted a comment about how the liberal media is trying to promote the idea of a Trump-led subverted election process based on Barton Gellman’s article in The Atlantic Monthly magazine. Today I received my weekly copy of The New Yorker magazine which contains another article about what will happen if Trump loses the election but then tries to stick around by challenging the results.

              In this latter piece by Jeffry Toobin, we are told that Trump will make such a big deal out of his claim of a ‘rigged’ election that it will make the 2000 contest between Bush and Gore look like a “mere skirmish.” Toobin then goes on to say that Trump’s provocative language might very well mean that “anything short of a landslide for either Biden or Trump could lead to chaos.” In other words, the election as an apocalyptic electoral event.

              As we head towards Armageddon, let’s take a look at the surveys. As of today, Joe leads Trump in the national surveys by 7 percent – 50% to 43%. Joe has been ahead by 7 to 9% since – ready? – mid-June. During those 100 days, he has dipped below 50%, all the way down to 49.9%, exactly twice. Nobody can point to a single, national campaign which has been so stable over such a long period of time.

              Now let’s look at those critical swing states. The media keeps telling us that there are somewhere between 9 and 12 states that could go either way. In fact, no matter how you slice it or dice it, Joe needs to win exactly 4 of those battleground states – Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and PA.

              In Michigan, Joe’s up 49.7% to 42.8%, a lead of 7 points. The Wisconsin numbers are 50.3% Joe, 43.8% Trump. Pennsylvania’s the close one – 49.6% for Biden, 44.9% for Trump. In New Hampshire it’s 49.7% Biden, 43% Trump spread. In all 4 states, Joe’s lead has been consistent since at least the beginning of July.

              Now let’s pretend that the election takes place next Tuesday instead of on November 3rd. Both the national and the statewide polls set the votes going to the Libertarian and Green candidates at 3%, which means that another 4% would be split between Biden and Trump.

              Worst case scenario: Trump gets 60% of the final dog shit vote. So he would wind up with a national total of 45.5% of all votes, a number that would basically be the same in the 4 battleground states. In other words, the gap between the two candidates both in the overall count as well as in the battleground states would be somewhere around 6%.

              I keep hearing from all the liberal experts like Gellman, Toobin, et. al.,  that because the election is so close and because the results won’t give our side a decisive win, that we can expect Trump to do all kinds of illegal things to prevent an orderly transition of power from taking place. He’ll gum up the USPS, his rifle-toting militia will challenge voters at the polls, he’ll file all kinds of crazy lawsuits, he’ll bring the political process to its knees.

              Last night, Toobin was interviewed by Wolf Blitzer on CNN at 6 P.M. At 6:30, the story about how Trump was going to refuse to leave office peacefully and quietly then became the lead story on the NBC national news. So Trump completely dominated the news cycle yesterday by taking the click-bait nonsense promoted by the liberal media and pretending that he intends to save America from another political ‘scam.’

              There’s only one little problem. In fact, if it were to turn out that the actual election ended with Joe getting 6% more votes than Trump, the 2020 results wouldn’t be close at all. Of the 18 Presidential elections that have been held since 1948, know how many gave the winner an edge of 6% or more of the popular vote? 

              Try four: 1956, 1964, 1972 and 1984.

If the November 3rd results wind up at or near how 14 of the past 18 Presidential elections have turned out, it will be a landslide for the blue team. The idea that Trump could convince anyone that an electoral results of such proportions was ‘rigged,’ is a joke.