The Accidental President.

              As of yesterday, the RCP national aggregate poll has Joe at 51.3% and Trump at 42.4%, a gap of 8.9 points. The 538 aggregate poll scores it 52.4% for Joe, 41.9% for Trump, a gap of 10.6 points. Take your pick. Either way, Biden is doing a lot better this time around than Clinton was doing in 2016.

              On October 17, 2016 the RCP national aggregate poll had Clinton at 46.2% and Trump at  Clinton got 48.8% of the popular vote, Trump ended up with 46.09%, the increase in Trump’s number coming largely from Libertarian voters who decided at the last moment not to waste their vote.

              Why have we put up with Trump for the last four years? Because he won the electoral votes in 3 states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – which have delivered their electoral votes to the Democratic in every national election since 1992. Move those 46 electoral votes from Trump to Hillary in 2016 and guess who would be running for re-election on the blue line?

              That’s kind of depressing isn’t it? Wait a minute – it gets worse. Add up the votes cast for Hillary in those 3 states, then add up the votes for Trump and here’s what you get: 6,577,816 versus 6,655,560, a difference of 77,744 votes. What did these 77,744 Republican voters accomplish in 2016? They gave Trump 46 electoral votes without which he would have ended up 14 electoral votes short of what he needed to win.

              Want to get a little more depressed? The difference between what Trump got in those 3 states and what we got was – ready? – less than two-tenths of 1 percent of the total votes cast in those states. We have had to put up with the most vulgar, racist, divisive, insulting, stupid and reckless rhetoric ever to come out of the mouth of any President because we, that’s right – we, couldn’t figure out how to convince 77,000 voters in three states that a vote for Trump was the wrong thing to do.

This morning, our friends at The (failing) New York Times seem to have finally figured this out. They posted a story which details how and why voters who didn’t vote for Hillary in 2016 are going to vote for Joe. And in every case, what they are saying is that they simply didn’t like Hillary because she was too arrogant, too distant, too this and too that. Fine. That was a reason to vote for Trump?

It’s not as if Trump made any attempt back in 2016 to hide who he was. He couldn’t wait to jump off the escalator at Trump Tower to announce his campaign by making sure that everyone knew he was going to pander to the lowest emotional and intellectual human denominators . And four years later, he’s still trying to wrap a campaign around the idea of ‘locking them up.’

So here’s the bottom line. Trump was and is an accidental President. For all the post-election talk about a new, populist wave, a disinformation Russian campaign, a this and a that, Trump won because we let him win, and it better not happen again.

Because if it does, in 2024 God willing, this yellow-dog Democrat since 1968 will vote for the GOP.

Could November 3rd Be A Landslide?

Last night I told my sister that the way things looked right now, Joe was on his way to winning 350 electoral votes (EV) or more. 

She said, “That’s impossible.”

I answered, “It’s not only possible, it could really happen and tomorrow I’ll explain how and why.  So here’s my explanation.

Joe started the campaign with 19 Commie/Antifa/sanctuary states in his pocket which together represent 222 votes. This group includes big-ticket states like California, New York, Illinois, Virginia, and New Jersey, five states which alone hold 131 EV’s. Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and  Washington add another 43 EV’s, Add Colorado, Connecticut and Oregon and you have 23 more. The rest are the little guys like New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine, Hawaii, Delaware, and DC, okay?

As of this morning, the average gap between Joe and what’s-his-name is 25 percent; i.e., overall Joe’s got 60% of the voters who say they are likely to vote, what’s-his-name has 35%. A few states, like Virginia and New Mexico only show Joe leading by 10-12%, but those states are the exception, not the rule.

Then we have what are referred to as the ‘battleground’ states, which are states that, generally speaking, go blue, but in 2016 went red. There are another 9 such states, together representing 125 EV’s. Florida’s the big one with 29 EV’s, followed by Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10), what we’ll call the rust-belt states. New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa complete the battleground group.

To get to 350 EV’s, Joe has to capture all 9 battleground states, an outcome which appeared not only doubtful but entirely fanciful two weeks ago. In 4 of those states (MI, NM, WI, PA) Joe has hit the magic number of 50%. The average gap for all 9 states is slightly higher than 5% – 49.56% to 44.51%. And the Sedaris dog-shit number in all 9 states has slipped down under 6%.

Yesterday, the tattered remnants of Trump’s shock-jock noise machine went on a tear about the latest ‘fake news’ national polls, which show Joe moving ahead by as much as 16%. These numbers have to be faked because, after all, Trump is still ahead in 23 states.

My father, who was trained as an accountant, used to say, “Figures don’t lie, but liars sure can figure.” And what’s-his-name’s campaign narrative in this regard proves my father to have been absolutely correct.

The total population in the 23 states that still have what’s-his-name ahead is currently 111 million; in the 19 states going for Joe, the population amounts to 136 million. Add to that latter figure the total population in the battleground states (another 80 million) and right now the states that are showing Joe in front, constitute 68% of the country’s population as a whole.

Assuming that the national polls try to build a response based on a ‘representative’ sample of voters, how could the national polls show anything other than a double-digit lead for Joe, given his campaign’s current performance in both the blue and battleground states?

Of course, there’s always a chance that lots of voters for what’s-his-name are following some secret plan to hide their true intentions for how they intend to vote. That’s all well and good, except the polling outfit making this claim – Rasmussen – admits that even when they adjust their numbers to take the ‘silent vote’ into account, what’s-his-name continues to lag behind.

Last night I was watching the NBC National News at 6:30 on the network’s affiliate station, WWLP. Midway through the broadcast was a 30-second campaign ad for Trump. Massachusetts is the only state of all 50 states that sends a completely Democratic delegation to DC.  As of this morning, Joe leads what’s-his-name by 65% to 29%. Even in the two biggest Commie states, California and New York, what’s-his-name is above 30%.

Buying TV time in Massachusetts? No wonder Trump’s campaign is broke. No wonder that Joe could just wind up blowing Trump out.

And just remember that every vote counts, if only to prevent what’s-his-name from challenging the results.

What Will Happen If Trump Loses? Nothing.

              Yesterday I posted a comment about how the liberal media is trying to promote the idea of a Trump-led subverted election process based on Barton Gellman’s article in The Atlantic Monthly magazine. Today I received my weekly copy of The New Yorker magazine which contains another article about what will happen if Trump loses the election but then tries to stick around by challenging the results.

              In this latter piece by Jeffry Toobin, we are told that Trump will make such a big deal out of his claim of a ‘rigged’ election that it will make the 2000 contest between Bush and Gore look like a “mere skirmish.” Toobin then goes on to say that Trump’s provocative language might very well mean that “anything short of a landslide for either Biden or Trump could lead to chaos.” In other words, the election as an apocalyptic electoral event.

              As we head towards Armageddon, let’s take a look at the surveys. As of today, Joe leads Trump in the national surveys by 7 percent – 50% to 43%. Joe has been ahead by 7 to 9% since – ready? – mid-June. During those 100 days, he has dipped below 50%, all the way down to 49.9%, exactly twice. Nobody can point to a single, national campaign which has been so stable over such a long period of time.

              Now let’s look at those critical swing states. The media keeps telling us that there are somewhere between 9 and 12 states that could go either way. In fact, no matter how you slice it or dice it, Joe needs to win exactly 4 of those battleground states – Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and PA.

              In Michigan, Joe’s up 49.7% to 42.8%, a lead of 7 points. The Wisconsin numbers are 50.3% Joe, 43.8% Trump. Pennsylvania’s the close one – 49.6% for Biden, 44.9% for Trump. In New Hampshire it’s 49.7% Biden, 43% Trump spread. In all 4 states, Joe’s lead has been consistent since at least the beginning of July.

              Now let’s pretend that the election takes place next Tuesday instead of on November 3rd. Both the national and the statewide polls set the votes going to the Libertarian and Green candidates at 3%, which means that another 4% would be split between Biden and Trump.

              Worst case scenario: Trump gets 60% of the final dog shit vote. So he would wind up with a national total of 45.5% of all votes, a number that would basically be the same in the 4 battleground states. In other words, the gap between the two candidates both in the overall count as well as in the battleground states would be somewhere around 6%.

              I keep hearing from all the liberal experts like Gellman, Toobin, et. al.,  that because the election is so close and because the results won’t give our side a decisive win, that we can expect Trump to do all kinds of illegal things to prevent an orderly transition of power from taking place. He’ll gum up the USPS, his rifle-toting militia will challenge voters at the polls, he’ll file all kinds of crazy lawsuits, he’ll bring the political process to its knees.

              Last night, Toobin was interviewed by Wolf Blitzer on CNN at 6 P.M. At 6:30, the story about how Trump was going to refuse to leave office peacefully and quietly then became the lead story on the NBC national news. So Trump completely dominated the news cycle yesterday by taking the click-bait nonsense promoted by the liberal media and pretending that he intends to save America from another political ‘scam.’

              There’s only one little problem. In fact, if it were to turn out that the actual election ended with Joe getting 6% more votes than Trump, the 2020 results wouldn’t be close at all. Of the 18 Presidential elections that have been held since 1948, know how many gave the winner an edge of 6% or more of the popular vote? 

              Try four: 1956, 1964, 1972 and 1984.

If the November 3rd results wind up at or near how 14 of the past 18 Presidential elections have turned out, it will be a landslide for the blue team. The idea that Trump could convince anyone that an electoral results of such proportions was ‘rigged,’ is a joke.

Can Trump Still Win? Difficult, Not Impossible.

              Yesterday I updated the poll numbers and they showed what they have been showing for the past several months, namely, that Joe appears to be on his way towards winning the 2020 campaign. But I would be presenting an overly optimistic view of the campaign if I didn’t also explain why Trump’s path to victory remains fairly clear and certainly can be done.  Here’s how and why.

              There are 23 states that have voted red in every Presidential election since 2000. Together, these states are worth 191 electoral votes (EV). Trump is comfortably ahead in 21 of these states, the exceptions being Georgia and Texas, together worth 54 EV’s. Right now Trump has less than a one-point lead in both those states, so if he doesn’t end up in the W column in both places, he can’t grab the brass ring. But for the moment, let’s assume that he keeps Texas and Georgia red. What else does he have to do?

              What else he has to do is win in a combination of the following states which would add up to 79 EV’s: IA, FL, MI, NV, NC, NM, OH, WI and PA. These are the states that have not always been either red or blue since 2000, and right now Trump is ahead in two of them – Iowa and Ohio – by less than 2 points in each. If he wins these two states along with Georgia and Texas, his EV number goes to 215, which leaves him 55 EV’s short of where he needs to be.

              As of this morning, Trump’s behind in Florida and North Carolina by a total of 3.2 points – two points in Florida, 1.2 in NC. If he pulls ahead in those two states by the end of the campaign, he gets another 44 EV’s. In other words, if Trump wins Iowa, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, all states where he and Joe are effectively tied, he still needs to win at least one of the following states – Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania – in order to claim the big prize. If he wins Wisconsin, he still needs to add another state.

              Right now, Trump is behind by 4.5 points in Arizona, and taken together, the most recent polls find him behind by 7 points. In Michigan, Joe is ahead by 7.5 points, and the polls added yesterday have him up by 10 points. The only one of these states that’s really close is PA, where Joe leads by 4.5 points but the most recent polls show the gap to be less. But even if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he still needs at least two more states.

              What did Al Neri say in Godfather II when Michael Corleone asked him if they could rub out Hyman Roth when the old gangster returned to the United States? Difficult, not impossible. I can’t think of a better way to describe the current state of the Trump campaign.

              If you’re going to mess around with poll numbers, however, there’s one thing you need to understand. Because it’s assumed that every pollster is polling a different group of respondents, the percentage of voters put up for both candidates on any given day is actually an average of what the polls for that state have reported over the previous week. So whatever number I am using to calculate each candidate’s EV’s, it may not be a number which accurately represents the real feelings amongst the electorate on any given day.

              The good news for Joe’s campaign right now is that the Sedaris dog-shit number, both nationally and in most states, is down to 7 points or less, which means that neither candidate can count on a sudden, last-minute flood of votes. It’s also the case that in every competitive state the Libertarian vote is around 2 percent, which means there’s no conservative wiggle-room for Trump in 2020 the way there was in 2016 when Libertarians were 7% of the voters polled before the actual vote.

              In sum, right now I’d rather be Joe than Trump. But ‘difficult, not impossible,’ should remain what we all force ourselves to think every day.

Should We Abolish The Electoral College?

              Ever since the world was startled and shocked by how Trump won the 2016 Presidential election but lost the popular vote, I have been hearing kvetch after kvetch from the anti-Trump, liberal combine (it’s one and the same thing) about how and why the Electoral College has to go. Incidentally, I didn’t hear a single complaint about the Electoral College in 1992 when, thanks to Ross Perot, Bill Clinton received the winner’s share of Electoral College votes even though his 43% of the popular vote was below the 46% received by Trump in 2016.

              Anyway, we now have an ‘official’ argument for abolishing the Electoral College in a book written by a member of The (failing) New York Times editorial board, Jesse Wegman, whose book, Let The People Pick The President, is reviewed right here. And basically the book argues for direct voting for President through something that Wegman calls the ‘National Popular Vote Compact.’ which would require all the states to give their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote.

              If Joe and Kammie win the election, I suspect the interest in reforming or changing the Electoral College will die down. If somehow, Trump is able to pull off a second term by convincing the rednecks in a couple of swing states that he’s still their man, you can be sure that every person on the Biden-Harris email list will start receiving fundraising requests to support some kind of scheme to replace the Electoral College with a popular vote.

              If that were actually to happen, the way things stand right now, it would probably bring about the demise of the Democratic Party and/or make it virtually impossible for the blue team to ever capture the White House again. And here’s the reason why.

              Going into the 2020 election, there are 24 states which are reliably red. How do I define a ‘red’ state as being reliable? Any state which delivered a majority of votes to the GOP ticket in every Presidential election since 2000. I picked 2000 because the Reagan elections in 1992 and 1996 were such landslides that the results were simply too unusual to be considered typical of what happens when Americans go to the polls every four years. Frankly, when he recovered from getting shot, Reagan could have been elected President for life.

              Since 2000, there are also 19 states that are reliably blue although two of those states – Colorado and Virginia, did have several results that would put them in the red bucket, but as of today these states are as blue as any to states can be.

              Criticisms that the Electoral College favors the smaller, rural states may sound convincing, but it happens not to be true.  Together, the 24 red states contain 111,372,848 residents, the blue states count 136,329,440 (2019 Census estimates.) Which means that going into a national election, the blue team starts off with a reliable 222 electoral votes, the red team has 191. This leaves 125 electoral votes controlled by 9 ‘unreliable’ states – Iowa, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and PA.

              For the Democrats to win the White House, they need to win any combination of ‘unreliable’ states that will yield them 48 electoral votes. So, if they win, let’s say, Iowa, Florida, and Michigan they win. If they take Ohio, Wisconsin, and PA they win. In other words, because the blue team goes into every national election needing only 48 electoral votes, the road to victory is much easier than for the red team because the red team needs to corral 79 of those ‘unreliable’ electoral votes.

              What needs to be understood is not whether we should ‘reform’ or ‘revise’ or even get rid of the Electoral College. What needs to be understood is how the 2016 Clinton campaign could spend twice as much money as the Trump campaign spent in 2016 and somehow let states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania vote red by less than 1/100th  of the total votes cast in those three states.  If we do in 2020 whatever we did to let that happen in 2016, Trump deserves another four years, like it or not.