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Time To Get It Done In Georgia.

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              Today I have already heard two AM shock-jocks proclaim that Trump’s visit to Georgia this weekend will tip both Senate races towards the GOP because Trump is the first sitting President to get more than 70 million votes in a national vote.

              Big friggin’ deal. Joe Biden happens to be the first Presidential candidate who ever polled 80 million votes. This part of the narrative about the 2020 election always seems to get drowned out.

              Before I send some dough down to Georgia to help Ossoff and Warnock pad what appear to be slight leads, I thought I would do a little research on what the increased 2020 turnout really means for both sides.

              In 2016, Trump and Hillary together pulled 3,967,067 Georgia residents to the polls, with Trump getting 50.4% of the votes (2,089,104) and Hillary getting 45.3% (1,877,973). Last month, the total vote for the blue and red teams was 4,936,344, with Joe getting 2,474,507 and Trump scoring 2,461,837 votes.

              Now watch. The total vote in Georgia from 2016 to 2020 increased by 24.4%.  Trump’s vote went up by 17.8%, slightly lower than the increase in his national vote which was 19.6%. Ready? Joe’s Georgia total in 2020 was 31.1% higher than what Hillary got in 2016; his national vote increased by 27% over the same four years.

              Comparing red to blue in these two elections, the red team had a slightly smaller percentage increase in Georgia than in the overall vote, Joe’s Georgia increase was proportionately higher than the increase in his national vote. No wonder Trump is claiming ‘fraud.’  

              One more comparison between what Hillary did in 2016 and what Joe did in Georgia this year. Georgia went red in 2012, with Romney getting 53.3% versus Barack’s 45.4%.  In 2008, McCain pulled 52.2% of the Georgia tally, Barack got 46.9% of the statewide vote. For the previous three Presidential elections, the blue candidate ran consistently at 45% – 46%. How did Joe push this number up to a shade under 50%?

              Here’s how. In the 6 counties which comprise Atlanta metro, Joe got 1,301,796 votes, an increase in 29.7% over what Hillary received in 2016. Both of them pulled slightly less than half their statewide votes from Gwinnett, Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Clayton, and Henry Counties. But while Hillary pulled 67% of the Fulton vote, 47% of the vote in Cobb, 50% in Henry and Gwinnett Counties, Joe got 72% in Fulton, 56% from Cobb, 58% and 60% respectively from Henry and Gwinnett.

              Per usual, Trump got 70% or more in most of the rural counties. But nobody lives in the swamps. He got 72% of the votes in Atkinson County, i.e., 2,300 votes. Clinch County gave him 74% of their votes, which was a whole, big 2,105. Without doing any kind of their usual street-level canvassing in urban neighborhoods, Joe got the vote he needed to swing Georgia out of the red. 

              I won’t bore you with the details but suffice it to say that the increase in urban, traditionally blue counties is exactly what happened not only in Georgia, but as well in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. For all the talk about how Trump created an entirely new wave of GOP voters in 2016 and embellished it this year, the truth is that we had to put up with his racism, his cronyism, his laziness, his disgusting language and his ineptitude because Hillary’s team didn’t get out the vote.

              The Georgia numbers make it clear that Trump was an accidental President in every respect. Luckily, the same accident didn’t happen twice.

              Now it’s time for the spiel.

Go to https://warnockforgeorgia.com/ and send Reverend Warnock a hundred bucks. Then go to https://electjon.com/ and send Jon Ossoff a Franklin too. And don’t tell me you can’t afford it. You can afford to go out tonight and pick up Chinese? You can afford to help these guys out.

Let’s get it done, okay? Get it done.

MAGA Isn’t A Movement. It’s A Cult.

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              By this time next week, most states will have certified their election results and Trump will continue to tweet about the voting ‘fraud.’  The following week, the electors will cast their votes at the Electoral College and Trump will still be tweeting about how he was ‘robbed.’

              Why does Trump keep letting Rudy Giuliani go out there, make an ass of himself by waving a sheaf of papers in the air which allegedly is comprised of ‘thousands’ of affidavits that are ‘evidence’ of ‘massive fraud?’

              I’ll tell you why. Because every time that Trump or one of his creatures stands up and says or tweets something about how the election was a farce, the media reports the pronouncement as if it is news. I’m not talking about alt-right media like Breitbart or Fox. I’m talking about my friends in the so-called ‘responsible,’ mainstream media, a.k.a., The Washington Post and/or The New York Times.

              The manner by which these stalwart icons of respectable journalism have aided and abetted what will be Trump’s post-election stance is a disgrace. Not only did they all dutifully assemble in the parking lot across the street from a porno shop to watch Rudy produce his ‘proof’ of how the election was stolen away, they then re-assembled and engaged in the same self-indulgent, nonsensical reporting when Rudy repeated his act at the RNC.

              I don’t really know why my liberal media friends continue to respond like a dog on the leash every time that Trump or one of his minions jerks the chain which tethers them on the other end. And because they will continue to give the Trump noise machine every benefit of every doubt after Joe is sworn in, I can already predict what Trump is planning to do.

              What he’ll do is go after the new Administration in the same way that he believes the Democrats and their Deep State allies tried to de-legitimize his Administration from Day 1. Recall the Million Moms March that took place in DC the day after Trump was sworn in? I guarantee that on January 21, 2021 there will be a ‘spontaneous’ demonstration in D.C. by a ‘Stop the Steal’ bunch hired and organized by the spin-meister Roger Stone.

              For Trump, losing the election gives him an unparalleled opportunity to engage in payback for the Mueller investigation, the impeachment, and the continued drumbeat about how the Putin Gang would love to undercut Biden’s win. And then Trump’s son can run for President in 2024, assuming he recovers from Covid-19.

              Trump’s so-called ‘base’ isn’t just his diehard supporters. It’s a cult. And the reason I call MAGA a cult is because you can get up and say anything at all to a cult-like audience, no matter how crazy, how uninformed, how totally detached from reality, and they’ll believe it because the words came out of your mouth.

              The members of the Branch Davidian cult who followed David Koresh at the Waco Mount Carmel compound believed that Judgement Day was on the way. They believed that David Koresh was a true ‘Lamb of God’ from the Book of Revelation and that he would prepare his flock for the world-ending apocalypse that, was going to occur.

              How different is that nonsense from the nonsense being peddled by Trump, Rudy and the other leaders of the MAGA cult about ‘massive voter fraud.’ Now maybe Sidney Powell went a little too far beyond accepted cult devotionals when she announced that money being used to crate illegal ballots was coming in from ‘Communist states.’ But poor Sydney was probably just demonstrating that her verbal cup had runneth over out of sheer joy.

              I think what Trump needs to do is change the cult’s name from MAGA to MESHUGAH. It’s a Yiddish word which means ‘crazy,’ and that’s what we are dealing with here. The lunatics have clearly and completely taken over the asylum, wouldn’t you agree?

Here’s The Real Presidential Campaign.

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              I don’t want to give Joe and Kammie what my beloved grandmother would call a kinehora, which means ‘evil eye,’ but I am beginning to believe that the only reason we still think there’s a Presidential contest going on is because there are lots of people, groups and media venues out there which exist only because they can make us believe that the race is still not done.

              On June 1st, Joe had a 6.2% lead over him, and his lead has remained at or above that margin ever since. How big is that lead? For all the talk about how Hillary won the popular vote in 2016, her winning margin was 2.10%. And by the way, the aggregate national polls in 2016 had the final numbers exactly right.

              Now let’s look at those ‘critical’ swing states. Right now Joe has 223 electoral votes coming from 21 Communist/Fascist/Terrorist/Sanctuary states. Oregon, on the other hand, is rated as a ‘likely’ but not certain blue state. Meanwhile, the first state-wide Oregon poll since June was published yesterday and Joe’s lead was only 12 points. Of course, maybe there are all kinds of hidden Trump votes in a state where 500,000 people have been forced to evacuate their homes, yet the President hasn’t said one, single word about the fires. Oregon’s only a ‘likely’ blue state. Yea, right.

              There are 4 states – Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin – which total 50 electoral votes. Joe gets those 4 states and he doesn’t need Florida, or Georgia, or North Carolina, or Texas, or any of the other states where he’s either even or just slightly below Trump in the statewide vote. Yesterday the Cook Report made headlines by moving Florida back into the toss-up category. Good. Let all the shuffleboard players at The Villages vote for Trump.

              Next weekend, Trump has a rally planned in the town of Mosinee, WI, which is about as far away from Kenosha as you can get. He’ll fly into a local airport, harangue a thousand or so folks about how Biden and the Democrats will turn America into Venezuela, and that will be that. Meanwhile, the latest polls show that his numbers went down after he visited Kenosha, not up.

              Know what Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have in common? They’re all Big 10 states. Back on August 5th, the Conference published its 2020 football schedule, noting that the teams would only play other Big 10 teams this year in order to minimize health issues arising from Covid-19. A week later, the Presidents of the Big-10 schools voted to cancel the entire season with the hopes that games might be played next Spring.

              Know why Trump is claiming he downplayed the virus threat to ‘protect’ America from the Chinese flu? Because he couldn’t figure out how to blame Joe, Nancy, and the rest of the radical-left Democrats for 1,000 Covid-19 deaths every day. Believe me, if he couldda, he wouldda.  

              One more thing about the swing-state vote needs to be said. I’ve said it before but it needs to be said again, and again, and again.

              In 2012, Obama received 7,175,828 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and PA, Romney got 6,203,656 in those same states.  In 2016, Hillary received 6,577,816 votes in those three states, a drop of 8%. Trump got 6,655,560 votes in those states in 2016, an increase of 7%. America and the entire world has been putting up with this small-minded, racist jerk because of how – ready? – .0006% of the voters who voted for Trump and Hillary cast their votes in 2016.

              Forget all the nonsense about how Trump represents some kind of ‘new wave’ in politics or how so many Americans are pissed off about immigrants coming over the Mexican border and either raping and murdering everyone or taking all our jobs. The numbers don’t lie even if Trump lies all the time.

              Either we go into cities like Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh and get some folks to either mail in their ballots, or stand on lines at polling places, or we don’t. If we don’t, we deserve four more years of Trump.

              To paraphrase Joe, if you can’t send him $25 right now, you’re not reading this blog: https://joebiden.com/. 

Where Are All The People Who Used To Love Donald Trump?

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So yesterday my sister, who loves to torment me, sent me an article from Vanity Fair where some reporter went out to a beaten-down town in Pennsylvania and claims to have found a couple of women who voted for Obama but then voted for Trump and are planning to vote for him again. Can Biden bring those gals back to the Democratic fold? No, he can’t. They love Trump.

When Graydon Carter was Editor of Vanity Fair, he would never have published such crap. Who cares if some sixty-ish lady sitting in a diner in Allentown and says she used to be a Democrat is in love with Donald Trump? Biden needs to chase those votes like he needs a hole in his head.

In 2016, Trump won 30 states. As of today, we have current polls for 23 of those states. The 7 states for which we have no current polls together count a whole, big 34 electoral votes. The remaining 23 states provided Trump with 270 EV’s, and with the exception of a 1-point gain in Utah, in not one of those states is his current margin as great now as it was back then.

In 11 of those 23 states, he is basically tied with Joe. In the other 12 states he is not carrying one single state with as wide a margin as he racked up four years ago: These other 12 states are so reliably red that we never spend one second thinking about which way they will go, Yet Trump right now is anywhere between 4 and 13 points below his winning margin of 2016. Numbers from Nate Silver’s website as of last night:

State% in 2016% in 2020
AL6256
AR6047
GA5047
IN5649
KS5651
KY6256
MS5750
MO5648
MT5651
OK6555
SC5450
TN6052
     

I’m not saying that Trump will lose any of what we should start calling the red, no-mask states. What I am saying is that if Trump can’t hold onto his support in reliably-red states, what does this say about whether he can come out ahead in any of the must-win, swing states? So the real story which should have been published by Vanity Fair wasn’t about a few older ladies who just can’t stop loving Donald Trump. The real story is how come so many people who loved him in 2016 have decided it’s time to end their love affair.

The big difference between 2016 and this year’s campaign is that Trump is now the incumbent, and for all the talk about the advantages of incumbency, the incumbent becomes the target when things go wrong. And how can anyone imagine that things haven’t gone wrong when the national Covid-19 death count is now well past 150,000, a number which includes Herman Cain, pictured (above) at the Tulsa rally without wearing a mask?

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