Back in November, the Gallup Organization published its annual national survey on what Americans think about gun control, something they have been doing since 1990, and to the delight of Gun-nut Nation, support for stronger gun laws has slipped back down to where it was somewhere around 2016-2017, having hit its all-time high in 2018.
This dip in the public’s perception of not needing stricter gun laws was then taken up by our friends at the NRA to kick a little bit of dirt onto the shoes of Everytown and Shannon Watts: “Reality provides clear evidence for why Shannon Watts and other professional gun controllers seek to tie themselves to every unrelated issue and crisis. It’s because their gun control agenda just isn’t popular. Everytown just doesn’t get it. No amount of focus groups, talking points, or double-speak will ever trick the American people into giving up their Constitutionally-affirmed right to keep and bear arms.”
Of course, if you take the trouble and drill down into the details of the latest Gallup poll, there’s a lot more for the gun industry to be worried about even if the support for stricter gun laws has dropped a couple of points. If anything, the underlying trends found by Gallop point to a real possibility that gun laws might become much stricter in the years to come. Let’s look at the details, okay?
First and most important question: Do you have a gun in your home? The ‘yes’ was 42%, up from 37% in 2019, but down from 43% in 2018. So, this number hasn’t really changed.
Should gun laws be stricter? The ‘yes’ was 57% but for women it was 67%, for men it was 46%. As the age of respondents goes up, the ‘yes’ percentage goes down, from 62% for ages 18-34 down to 59% for anyone over 55 years old.
Here’s the big one – race. White respondents wanted stricter gun laws by 48%, non-Whites – ready – by 75%! Hey – what happened to all those African-Americans out there allegedly getting into guns?
Finally – education. Two-thirds of college grads want gun laws to be stricter. 49% of respondents with ‘some college’ opted for less strict gun laws. The phrase ‘some college’ usually refers to guys who get certified in some kind of hands-on skill-set like HVAC or IT.
For all the talk and hot air coming from Gun-nut Nation about how all these new groups like women and minorities are getting into guns, the American home which contains a gun is still, on average, a household headed by a White male with some college, above age 50 and it goes without saying, considers himself to be a conservative and votes for the red team.
In other words, when it comes to who comprises Gun-nut Nation, plus ça change, plus la même chose. Or as Grandpa would say, “gurnisht macht gurnisht.”
And if that’s not a problem for the gun business, I don’t know what is. Because right now, White males over the age of 40 comprise about 10 percent of the total population, and for the first time, a majority of the population under age 16 is non-White. In other words, the demographic profile on which the gun industry is not only solidly rooted but continues to show basically no change, happens to be a profile which is going to fade away over the next several decades.
For those of you who are committed to seeing gun violence disappear, twenty to thirty years may seem like a long time. But let me tell you something. When my mother was pregnant with me in 1944, her doctor told her to stop smoking until after I was born. How long did it take the FDA to finalize warning labels on cigarette packs? Try 40 years.
Guns happen to be a very old technology. More than anyone else, the kids like things that are ‘new.’ There may have been a line in front of some gun shops at the height of the Pandemic, but I have never seen the Apple store anything but filled.
If I wanted to plunk some money into the stock market, I’d take Apple over Smith & Wesson every time.
Jun 15, 2021 @ 10:30:07
The first firearms were invented about a millennium ago and somewhere in the world, there is always someone who needs to shoot someone for some reason or other, whether it is Lebensraum, Manifest Destiny, or “hey, I want some of what you got/no, you can’t have it”.
I think guns are here to stay regardless of demographics but maybe not as a centerpiece of American life. But I wouldn’t put my life savings on either Apple or S&W. My crystal ball is hopelessly fogged up. That said, I’ll likely be leaving this world pretty soon so it is up to our descendants to figure this out. I agree that the younger folks are not in a gun culture for the most part, hunting is fading into the past, and city folks in an urbanized nation often see the business end of the gun and that fixes their…point of view.
Meanwhile, in Santa Fe, I am more likely to meet my maker courtesy of someone hurtling down the road at 20 mph over the speed limit while texting d*ck pictures to his girlfriend than I am being shot. Well, so far, anyway. So maybe we need smart phone control, too.
Jun 15, 2021 @ 10:43:55
I think Mike has a point here. I’m not saying that too many white men own guns. The problem is that there isn’t enough of anyone else owning guns. And that’s what needs to change in the coming years.
If I was in charge of the NRA, increasing the diversity of gun owners would be my number one long term goal. This would open up 2A rights (Read: RIGHTS not ‘rights’) to minorities who are entitled to them equally by law. It would also open up a relatively untapped market for gun manufacturers. In short, a win for everyone who isn’t antigun.
And a more diverse gun owning community would strike a critical blow against antigun folks. The left’s favorite tactic is to yell “YoU’rE RaCiSt!” at anyone and everyone they don’t like. And there are few people the left dislike more than gun owners. More racial diversity among gun owners would largely nullify the left’s favorite talking point. More female gun owners would also nullify the left’s OTHER favorite talking point: “YoU OwN a GuN So YoU HaVe A tInY pEnIS!”
Jun 15, 2021 @ 10:48:40
Good points. That said, the NRA made it a point of painting everyone as either inside or outside the tent and kept occupancy in the tent to a select few. I’ve been in the gun shop in Santa Fe several times in the last week as the owner brought in two estates on consignment. No one had anything good to say about our friends in Fairfax.
Jun 15, 2021 @ 11:31:43
“…the latest Gallup poll, there’s a lot more for the gun industry to be worried about even if the support for stricter gun laws has dropped a couple of points.”
Maine had a vote, ballot initiative on universal background checks a few years ago, and it actually failed – there’s oftentimes a disconnect, I think, between public opinion polling and motivated voting.
Guns may be very old technology, but as long as we have the entertainment industry saturating the market with the good guys dealing with the less desirable sort of people using guns, the gun industry will have nothing to worry about.
Jun 15, 2021 @ 11:35:32
Maine and Nevada both had the same Everytown-supplied bill on the ballot that year for a plebicite. It failed in Maine and barely passed in NV. Same demographics, if I recall. Urban Maine and Clark County, NV both supported it and the rural areas opposed it. In NM, the legislature voted on it and again, along party and urban/rural divides. Passed here too.
That is the usual divide and as the nation urbanizes, its not good for Gun Nut Nation.
Jun 15, 2021 @ 11:52:52
I just hate to see the U.S. going back to Jim Crow laws. Seems to me many gun issues discriminate against minorities and the poor.
Jun 16, 2021 @ 04:13:01
“Do you have a gun in your home? The ‘yes’ was 42%, up from 37% in 2019, but down from 43% in 2018…”
Lol….What’s more likely, that a bunch of people got rid of their guns between 2018 and 2019…Or, that people are just less likely to answer the questions of some stranger on the phone honestly?
Jun 16, 2021 @ 10:53:05
Generally those polls have several percent error. I think it means no statistical change at all regardless of the people who ran out and bought guns, some of whom were allegedly first time buyers. My suspicion, like yours, is that not everyone tells the truth on that question.